Opinion: Cuba’s two conundrums

At the end of April, Cuba’s parliament, the National Assembly of Popular Power (ANPP), elected Miguel Diaz-Canel president, to succeed Raul Castro. Although Raul remains first secretary of the country’s Communist Party (PCC) and de facto chief of the armed forces, much is being made of a generational shift in the country’s leadership. The new president faces two conundrums which he must solve to keep himself in power and his country stable. The first regards the economy, which is stagnant and cannot come close to satisfying the needs of an increasingly young and internet-savvy population. Now that Cuba’s former patrons, the Soviet Union and Venezuela, no longer provide support, the country must attract foreign capital to revive economic growth. The second conundrum is that just when the President thought Cuba would be welcomed back into the hemispheric community, Cuba lost its geopolitical leverage. The shift to the right in most of South America means that Cuba’s absence of democracy is more important outside the island than it was just five years ago.

Geopolitical Intelligence Services also produced a short video based on this report:

You can read my full report here.